The EU and its member states are among the nearly 190 parties to the Paris Agreement. The EU formally ratified the agreement on 5 October 2016, allowing it to enter into force on 4 November 2016. In order for the agreement to enter into force, at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of global emissions had to file their ratification instruments. The fact that in the event of extreme rains, there is a series of more shared results than for heat waves might suggest some things. In some cases, limited data may make it difficult to detect a clear “signal” of climate change above the “noise” of the weather, considered normal for a given region. In other cases, an unsuccessful result may reflect the fact that rains or floods are inherently more complex than heat waves, with many potential for natural variability. Human factors such as land use and drainage also play a role in whether heavy rains cause flooding. For example, two studies focusing on 2016 have found that El Nio and man-made climate change are jointly causing drought and crop failure in southern Africa (pdf, p. 91) and that increased warming sea surface temperatures have increased the risk (pdf, P144) of the Great Barrier Reef coral oak. The Paris Agreement is the culmination of decades of international efforts to combat climate change.
Here`s a little story. Of the 61 drought episodes and trends that were considered in the published studies, 61% found that climate change had increased the severity or likelihood of its occurrence. Other 21% of studies found no apparent link with human activity, while 16% were inconclusive. “While arguing that in the Anthropocene, all extreme climatic or climatic events that occur are altered by human influence on climate… This does not mean that climate change can be held responsible for any extreme climate or climate event. After all, there has always been extreme weather. As the science of extreme event imputation has matured and become more nuanced, the choice of terminology has also developed in extreme weather and climate change. Scientists have published more than 300 peer-reviewed studies that study extreme weather events around the world, from wildfires in Alaska (pdf) and hurricanes in the Caribbean to floods in France and heat waves in China. The result is a growing evidence that human activity increases the risk of certain extreme weather conditions, particularly heat. Indeed, research shows that the cost of climate activity far outweighs the cost of reducing carbon pollution. A recent study suggests that if the United States does not meet its climate targets in Paris, it could cost the economy up to $6 trillion in the coming decades.
A lack of compliance with the NPNs currently foreseen in the agreement could reduce global GDP by more than 25% by the end of the century.